Why UTXO Age Matters
Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age analysis is one of the most powerful tools in on-chain data science. By stratifying UTXOs by their creation block, we can observe where conviction lives, where it’s cracking, and where capital is rotating.
Each age band tells a different story about holder psychology and market phase. This report provides a current snapshot of the entire UTXO age distribution for Bitcoin.
Current UTXO Age Distribution
| Age Band | % of Circulating Supply | 30-Day Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 1 day | 1.8% | +0.1% | Short-term churn |
| 1–7 days | 2.4% | -0.2% | Retail trading |
| 1 week–1 month | 3.1% | -0.4% | Swing trading |
| 1–3 months | 5.2% | +0.3% | Accumulation |
| 3–6 months | 4.8% | -0.1% | Neutral |
| 6–12 months | 8.5% | +0.5% | Mid-term conviction |
| 1–2 years | 14.9% | -1.1% | Most liquid band |
| 2–3 years | 9.1% | -0.6% | Moderate spending |
| 3–5 years | 15.6% | -2.1% | Active distribution |
| 5–7 years | 8.2% | +0.4% | Maturing |
| 7–10 years | 12.3% | +1.5% | Accruing |
| 10+ years | 14.1% | -0.02% | Lost/Locked |
Key Observations
The 3–5 Year Band: Distribution Phase
The 3–5 year band (coins created in 2021–2023 cycle) decreased 2.1% month-over-month — the largest net outflow of any age band. This suggests mid-term holders from the last bull cycle are distributing, potentially rotating into other assets or taking profit.
The 7–10 Year Band: Accruing Strength
Coins aged 7–10 years now represent 12.3% of supply, up from 10.8% six months ago. This is the fastest-growing band by percentage. These coins were created in 2016–2019, a period spanning the post-halving accumulation phase and the 2017 bull run. The increase suggests a subset of these holders is tightening grip, not selling.
The 10+ Year Band: Near Zero Movement
With only 0.02% of the 10+ year band moving in the last month, the thesis that these coins are largely lost, locked in legacy wallets, or held by entities with no intention to sell is strengthened. This band represents Bitcoin’s Genesis-era supply — the hardest of hard money.
Liquidity Heat Map
| Band | Turnover (30d) | Liquidity Classification |
|---|---|---|
| 1–2 years | 18.0% | High (active trader base) |
| 2–3 years | 8.4% | Medium |
| 3–5 years | 5.2% | Medium-Low |
| 5–7 years | 0.9% | Low |
| 7–10 years | 0.4% | Very Low |
| 10+ years | 0.02% | Near Zero |
Implications
The widening gap between the liquid (1–5 year) and illiquid (5+ year) bands is a signal of market maturation. An increasing percentage of supply is being held by investors with longer time horizons, while the mid-term cohort cycles through profit-taking.
For price discovery, this means that the effective circulating supply available for trading is significantly smaller than headline supply metrics suggest.
Next Week’s Coverage
We will publish a follow-up comparing UTXO age distribution across ETH and select L1 networks to identify cross-chain holding patterns.