I. The Concept of Realized Cap

Market capitalization — multiplying the circulating supply of 20.04 million BTC by $61,908 — produces a figure of $1.24 trillion. But this headline number tells us only what the last transacted unit is worth, not what the average unit was acquired for.

Realized capitalization solves this by valuing each UTXO (unspent transaction output) at its price at the time of its last on-chain movement, rather than at the current market price. For a 2010 UTXO last moved when BTC traded at $0.28, realized cap assigns it that $0.28 value, not $61,908. Summed across all 87+ million UTXOs, realized cap reveals the aggregate cost basis of the entire network.

At block 952,537, Bitcoin’s realized cap is estimated at $540-580 billion — approximately 44-47% of the market cap. Put differently: the aggregate amount of capital that has flowed into Bitcoin sits at roughly half a trillion dollars, while the market says that capital is now worth $1.24 trillion.

This $660-700 billion gap represents the network’s aggregate unrealized profit — and it is distributed with extreme inequality across vintage strata.

II. Cost Basis by Vintage Cohort

Vintage coins are not created equal. A UTXO created in 2010 carries a fundamentally different acquisition cost than one created in 2025 — yet both contribute equally to the circulating supply count. Realized cap reveals this hidden stratification.

Table 1: Estimated Cost Basis by UTXO Age Band (Block 952,537)

Note: Cost basis estimates derived from average BTC price during each period, weighted by UTXO creation density. Actual realized cap requires per-UTXO price attribution.

The data reveals a stark reality: coins created before 2017 make up roughly 38% of circulating supply but account for less than 2% of realized cap. These vintage UTXOs — held by early miners, adopters, and lost-wallet owners — carry cost bases so low that they are effectively immovable at any reasonable price threshold.

Conversely, the 2025-2026 cohort — the most recent 2.3 million BTC — carries an average cost basis of $67,500, essentially at break-even with the current $61,908 price. This cohort is the most price-sensitive: a 10% decline into $55,700 territory would put over 2 million BTC underwater on realized cap basis.

III. The Vintage Coin Cost-Basis Divergence

The most remarkable finding is the cost-basis divergence ratio. The gap between the cheapest vintage coins (2010: ~$12 average cost) and the most recent (2026: ~$67,500) has reached 5,625:1 — a record in Bitcoin’s history.

This divergence has been widening since 2017, when the ratio stood at approximately 150:1. Each subsequent bull cycle adds a new stratum of high-cost holders while the original vintage coins remain untouched, compounding the structural dispersion.

Table 2: Cost-Basis Divergence Over Time

The divergence has accelerated sharply since 2021, driven by two forces: (1) each cycle’s peak introduces new holders at progressively higher price floors, while (2) the 2010-2013 vintage UTXOs remain almost perfectly dormant — their cost basis frozen in time since the earliest years of the network.

IV. MVRV Ratio: What 2.1-2.3x Signals

The MVRV ratio (market cap ÷ realized cap) at block 952,537 is approximately 2.1-2.3x, placing it in historically moderate territory:

• MVRV < 1: Entire market underwater (bear-market capitulation — seen Dec 2018, Mar 2020, Nov 2022)
• MVRV 2-3: Moderate profitability; mid-cycle positioning (Jun 2016, Oct 2020, current)
• MVRV 4-7: Euphoria zone; peak-cycle distribution (Dec 2013, Dec 2017, Apr 2021)
• MVRV > 7: Extreme overvaluation (Jun 2011 only — 30x at $31 peak)

A MVRV of 2.1-2.3 suggests that the aggregate market holds roughly double the capital that has been invested. This is consistent with a mid-cycle environment — neither the capitulation of a bear market nor the euphoria of a blow-off top.

However, the aggregate ratio obscures a critical vintage-coin dynamic: the MVRV for coins aged 3+ years is likely above 20x, while the MVRV for coins aged <2 years is roughly 0.92x (below break-even). The market is simultaneously in extreme profit for vintage holders and mild loss for recent buyers — a split that has no historical precedent in its magnitude.

V. Implications for Vintage Coin Analysis

Immovable Supply

The cost-basis data suggests that 2010-2013 vintage UTXOs — which hold an estimated 3.3 million BTC — have an effective selling price threshold so far above current levels that they function as near-permanent supply. At a cost basis of $12-95, even a 100x gain to $6,000-9,500 would represent selling at a fraction of market price. These coins will likely never move unless BTC appreciates to a level where a 0.1% portfolio allocation becomes life-changing wealth — a threshold that may be at $500,000 or higher.

The 2025-2026 Breakeven Cliff

Conversely, the 2.3 million BTC acquired at $67,500 average creates a price-sensitive overhang. A drop below $55,000 would push over 80% of this cohort into unrealized loss, historically a catalyst for accelerated selling or HODLing conviction depending on macro conditions. As of June 5, 2026, BTC trades at $61,908 — within 9% of the breakeven line.

Realized Cap as a Floor

One of realized cap’s most robust properties in Bitcoin history is its function as a price floor during bear markets. In every major cycle, BTC’s market price has bottomed within 10-20% of realized cap. With realized cap at $540-580B and growing at approximately $2-3B per month, the implied floor rises by roughly $100-150 per unit per month — placing the long-term valuation anchor at $27,000-29,000 per BTC by Q3 2026.

Data sources: Blockchair API (block 952,537), mempool.space, Glassnode realized cap estimates, CoinMetrics UTXO age band data. Cost basis figures are estimates derived from historical price averages and may differ from per-UTXO attribution.

— Encryption Archive · AeonD.org